Why Rangers could be in ‘dark place’ with former top pick ahead of trade deadline
In the midst of a roster retool, the New York Rangers must make an important decision about the future of Alexis Lafreniere. Is the 2020 No. 1 overall pick in the NHL Draft a long-term keeper and part of the core moving forward? Or do the Rangers cut their losses after six largely unfulfilling seasons — perhaps before the NHL Trade Deadline on March 6?
That the Rangers are in this position is brutal, of course. At age 24, Lafreniere should be right there with Igor Shesterkin and Adam Fox as the center of the Rangers universe, with the organization building around those three. But that’s not the reality, since Lafreniere’s failed to hold up his end of the bargain, especially after backsliding with his offensive production the past two seasons.
The Rangers don’t have to trade Lafreniere before this year’s deadline, but must decide sooner rather than later if they’re better off with, or without, him as a top-six fixture in their forward group.
“When it comes to Lafreniere, the question they have to ask themselves is, one, we know his value is probably as low as it’s ever been, but they have to ask themselves if his value is as high as it’ll ever be, which is a bit of a dark place to be if you are the Rangers,” The Athletic’s Peter Baugh told Forever Blueshirts on the Rink Rap podcast. “Is this guy going to raise his value any more in the next year, next two years. And I don’t think you can say that he definitively will — he might, and those are the kind of conclusions they’re going to have to reach and really think about. Because he hasn’t helped his value each of the past two seasons after a really, really encouraging 2023-24 season.”
There are teams out there willing to get their hands on Lafreniere and give him an opportunity change of scenery elsewhere. After all, he is, you know, a former first-overall pick, and did score 28 goals in 2023-24.
But, as Baugh alluded to, if the Rangers trade him now, it’d be for pennies on the dollar. And the other part is that the Rangers don’t want to deal him if they truly believe he can still become a star on Broadway.
“So, I think it comes down to that question: Do they think his value is going to go up, stay the same or go down? If it’s stay the same or go down, then you have to seriously consider trading him now.”
It feels like a potential Lafreniere trade best takes place in the offseason, rather than before this year’s trade deadline. However, if the Rangers hierarchy has significant doubts about Lafreniere, they must act accordingly and move him during this retool phase.
His contract is not an impediment to either keeping or trading him. Lafreniere is in the first season of a seven-year, $52.15 million contract, signed early last season after his impressive 2024 postseason run, when he tied for the Rangers lead with eight goals in 16 games. That $7.45 million annual salary is certainly digestible, and it comes without trade protection until July 1, 2027. At that point — and through the rest of his contract — Lafreniere has an eight-team no-trade clause.
“So … you’re under no pressure, you don’t have to trade him now. He’s under contract,” Baugh explained. “People refer to that contract as an albatross or whatever. That’s a fine contract. With the [salary] cap going up, that’s what the going rate for a second-line winger’s going to be.”
Alexis Lafreniere, Rangers share blame for where former top pick is at: ‘failure in multiple parts’
Lafreniere is as polarizing a player as there is in the NHL. Supporters point to his consistently strong underlying metrics – his 53.95 percent expected goal share this season leads all Rangers forwards, per Natural Stat Trick — high-end skill, and that breakout 2023-24 season (28 goals, 57 points). Detractors focus on his lack of results and drop-off in production the past two seasons, plus often disinterest in playing a 200-foot game.
Last season, Lafreniere backslid to 17 goals and 45 points. This season, he has 12 goals and 32 points in 57 games, though he’s tied for third on the Rangers with 26 even-strength points. Yet, it all feels so underwhelming, especially with the Rangers in last place and set to miss the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the second straight season.
And those moments like the three-assist performance outdoors against the Florida Panthers at the Winter Classic in Miami on Jan. 2, or the two-goal, three-point outing against the Pittsburgh Penguins shortly before the Olympic break? They feel like a tease, more of an anomaly than a harbinger of things to come.
“I think some of it the player needs to look inward, and the team has to look inward. It’s probably a failure on multiple parts,” Baugh shared. “I don’t think he went into the past two seasons thinking he wasn’t going to perform the way he wanted. I think there’s probably accountability to go around, of how a player can take steps back like that.”
Bu this is the Rangers’ reality as it pertains to Lafreniere. Whether before March 6 or during the offseason, the Rangers must decide which fork in the road to take. Trade him. Or keep him as part of your core.
