Key area Rangers must improve upon against best NHL teams
The New York Rangers sit at the NHL mountain top with 102 points and just nine games left before the Stanley Cup Playoffs. While they have a great chance of winning the Metropolitan Division and the Presidents’ Trophy as the regular-season’s best, they are not considered the team to beat.
According to Covers, they aren’t even one of the favorites. That honor goes to the Florida Panthers at +650, followed by the Colorado Avalanche and Carolina Hurricanes at +700. Matter of fact, the Rangers come in sixth at a +1000, behind the Edmonton Oilers (+800) and Dallas Stars (+900).
Wait a minute! Aren’t the Rangers the best team in the League right now? It begs a deeper dive into why oddsmakers and even some hockey experts simply don’t believe in them.
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New York Rangers need to step up 5-on-5
It’s been their Achilles’ Heel all season, but anyone that analyzes the numbers can’t ignore the Rangers’ lack of 5-on-5 scoring. Looking closer at the NHL’s Top 10 teams to date, the Blueshirts have scored the second-lowest amount of 5-on-5 goals (148), and have the worst 5-on-5 goal differential (+6).
While the Cup-favored Panthers have the lowest amount of 5-on-5 Goals For (133), they still have a better differential by 18 goals over the Rangers. They also have a +5.6 shots per game differential with a CorsiFor of 55%, to the Rangers +1.2 and 49.3 respectively. Usually, better possession numbers and shot counts translates well in the playoffs, when every inch of ice is a battleground.
Sometimes, it’s these underlying stats that are not always easy to see beyond the wins and points that raises your probability to claim Lord Stanley’s Prize. Especially in the eyes of prognosticators.
More often than not, the best regular-season team doesn’t win. You can simply look at the list of Presidents’ Trophy winners to see that the last one to raise the Cup were the 2012-13 Chicago Blackhawks.
| TEAM | PTS | PTS% | GFA | GAA | DIF | SF/GP | SA/GP | DIF | 5V5F | 5V5A | DIF |
| NEW YORK RANGERS | 102 | 0.699 | 3.37 | 2.71 | 0.66 | 30.9 | 29.7 | 1.2 | 148 | 142 | 6 |
| DALLAS STARS | 101 | 0.682 | 3.65 | 2.95 | 0.70 | 31.5 | 29.0 | 2.5 | 176 | 150 | 26 |
| CAROLINA HURRICANES | 99 | 0.669 | 3.38 | 2.62 | 0.76 | 33.1 | 25.9 | 7.2 | 160 | 131 | 29 |
| BOSTON BRUINS | 99 | 0.669 | 3.28 | 2.74 | 0.54 | 29.4 | 31.0 | -1.6 | 162 | 125 | 37 |
| COLORADO AVALANCHE | 98 | 0.671 | 3.70 | 2.95 | 0.75 | 33.0 | 29.5 | 3.5 | 174 | 144 | 30 |
| VANCOUVER CANUCKS | 98 | 0.671 | 3.45 | 2.64 | 0.81 | 28.2 | 28.8 | -0.6 | 172 | 119 | 53 |
| FLORIDA PANTHERS | 97 | 0.664 | 3.21 | 2.44 | 0.77 | 33.4 | 27.8 | 5.6 | 133 | 109 | 24 |
| WINNIPEG JETS | 94 | 0.644 | 3.04 | 2.47 | 0.57 | 30.6 | 29.7 | 0.9 | 153 | 107 | 46 |
| EDMONTON OILERS | 92 | 0.648 | 3.58 | 2.87 | 0.71 | 33.7 | 28.5 | 5.2 | 161 | 133 | 28 |
| TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS | 91 | 0.632 | 3.63 | 3.13 | 0.50 | 33.0 | 29.9 | 3.1 | 173 | 143 | 30 |
Rangers can still go all the way
Everyone knows that when the real dance begins, referees call the game differently. What is a penalty during the regular season isn’t one in the playoffs. Even more frustrating, what’s a penalty in the opening round, isn’t one when you reach the Conference Finals.
That being said, good special teams matter, and the Rangers have the third-best power play and second-best penalty kill among the Top 10. However, the Carolina Hurricanes, who are behind them in the standings are considered a better Cup contender. That’s likely due to the Hurricanes sporting the top penalty kill and second-best power play in this field. If that’s not enough, they also lead in Shots Per Game differential (+7.2), CorsiFor% (58.9) and 5v5OZ% (55.8).
| TEAM | PP% | PK% | FOW% | CF% | 5v5OZ% |
| NEW YORK RANGERS | 26.0% | 83.5% | 52.5% | 49.3 | 51.6 |
| DALLAS STARS | 23.7% | 81.4% | 53.6% | 53.0 | 49.9 |
| CAROLINA HURRICANES | 26.5% | 85.6% | 52.4% | 58.9 | 55.8 |
| BOSTON BRUINS | 23.4% | 82.2% | 49.4% | 47.6 | 45.2 |
| COLORADO AVALANCHE | 24.3% | 81.9% | 48.1% | 52.4 | 51.1 |
| VANCOUVER CANUCKS | 22.0% | 79.3% | 51.8% | 50.7 | 48.8 |
| FLORIDA PANTHERS | 25.7% | 82.2% | 51.3% | 55.0 | 54.4 |
| WINNIPEG JETS | 17.9% | 76.6% | 47.3% | 51.7 | 53 |
| EDMONTON OILERS | 27.7% | 79.9% | 52.7% | 54.8 | 53.5 |
| TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS | 25.2% | 76.5% | 54.0% | 50.5 | 51.5 |
Amazingly enough, the Rangers actually have a winning or even record against all the top teams in the NHL, except for the Panthers (1-2-0).
Overall, New York is 13-8-1 against the other nine elites and continue to find ways to win. What is concerning come playoff time, is they’re dead even in Goals Per Game For and Against at 3.02 versus the field.
| HEAD TO HEAD | RECORD | GFA | GAA | DIF |
| DALLAS STARS | 1-1-0 | 3 | 3.5 | -0.5 |
| CAROLINA HURRICANES | 2-1-0 | 1.33 | 2.33 | -1 |
| BOSTON BRUINS | 3-0-0 | 4.67 | 2.33 | 2.34 |
| COLORADO AVALANCHE | 2-0-0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1 |
| VANCOUVER CANUCKS | 1-1-0 | 3.5 | 4.5 | -1 |
| FLORIDA PANTHERS | 1-2-0 | 3 | 3.67 | -0.67 |
| WINNIPEG JETS | 1-1-0 | 2.5 | 3 | -0.5 |
| EDMONTON OILERS | 1-1-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS | 1-1-1 | 3.67 | 4.33 | -0.66 |
| TOTALS | 13-8-1 | 3.02 | 3.02 | Even |
At the end of the day, the Rangers are still one of the upper-echelon teams entering the playoffs. Although, if they want to win the Stanley Cup, they’ll need more than the line of Artemi Panarin, Vincent Trocheck, and Alexis Lafreniere scoring at 5-on-5.
This is a call to Mika Zibanejad, who has struggled this season to score at 5-on5. Of course, the Rangers need more than their best two-way player to step it up when the games get tighter. Chris Kreider, Jack Roslovic, Alexander Wennberg, and Kaapo Kakko need to bring their best as well. It’s the only way this Rangers team can end another long Cup drought that’s going on 30 years.
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