Is this the breakout — or breaking point — for Alexis Lafrenière with Rangers?
Alexis Lafrenière is one of the most polarizing players in recent New York Rangers history. And this coming season, already his sixth in the NHL, feels like it should be either a breakout or breaking point for the young forward in New York.
Taken first overall in the 2020 NHL Draft, Lafrenière entered the League with sky-high expectations. Five seasons later, opinion remains split: is he a late bloomer with untapped star potential, or a miscast talent who needs a change of scenery?
This becomes even more of a hotly-contested debate because Lafreniere’s seven-year, $52.15 million contract, agreed to last October, kicks in this season. He’s now the sixth-highest paid player on the Rangers, fourth among all forwards. And while it can be argued that his $7.45 million average annual value is a bargain, that’s only the case if he plays to his 2023-24 form.
Remember, it was just two years ago that Lafreniere appeared to be an ascending NHL star. Playing on the right side of Artemi Panarin and Vincent Trocheck, Lafreniere set career highs across the board with 28 goals, 29 assists and 57 assists. He seemingly cemented his ascension by tying for the Rangers lead with eight goals in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, helping the Rangers reach the 2024 Eastern Conference Final.
However, he failed to carry that success over into last season. After a strong start, Lafreniere underperformed most of 2024-25, finishing with 17 goals and 45 points. No matter that some of his underlying numbers were OK and the season was a team-wide fail, it was still a step back for Lafreniere.
Now, he enters his age-24 season with that new contract and plenty of expectations for a bounce-back year.
So, will it be a breakout or breaking point?
“He’s no longer a kid with potential at this point,” an NHL scout told Forever Blueshirts. “You either become a leader and a star, or just another guy on the roster.”
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The case for an Alexis Lafreniere breakout with Rangers
Let’s start with this. Lafreniere has a lot of offensive skill. And when he’s playing with confidence and swagger, he’s a tough guy to stop.
But can he — will he — bring it every night over an 82-game season? And will new coach Mike Sullivan, the two-time Stanley Cup winner with the Pittsburgh Penguins, be able to draw out more from Lafreniere that David Quinn, Gerard Gallant or Peter Laviolette did?
“He’s not going to get by on just talent,” that same scout told Forever Blueshirts. “Sullivan’s going to make him accountable. You either buy in, or you’re in the doghouse.”
so, here’s a look at what would be a realistic breakout season for Lafreniere.
1. Top-Six Role & Top-Line Production
Lafrenière will be locked into a top-six spot, potentially skating alongside Trocheck and Panarin again. He should finally receive more time on the power play. So, he’s expected to produce like a star — the kind of forward who can push 70 points and be a difference-maker on the power play.
2. Consistency
The biggest criticisms of Lafreniere last season were streakiness, and inconsistent results and effort. He’d score in bunches, then vanish for 10 or more games. This year, Sullivan will demand Lafreniere impacts games every night — even when the puck isn’t going in.
3. Two-Way Commitment
Sullivan’s system demands playing responsible, intelligent hockey. That means winning puck battles, backchecking hard, and not becoming a defensive liability. Lafreniere has much room to grow in each of these areas.
4. Leadership & Accountability
Five seasons into his NHL career, Lafrenière is no longer a “prospect.” With his contract and No. 1 overall pick status, he’ll be expected to lead both on and off the ice, with or without a letter on his sweater.
5. Statistical Targets
The baseline expectations:
Goals: 25–30
Assists: 35–40
Points: 60–70
Power-Play Points: 15–20
Average Ice Time: 17–19 minutes
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The case for Rangers reaching breaking point with Alexis Lafreniere
If Lafrenière takes another step back, the contract could quickly look like an overpay. His ice time and role could shrink. Trade rumors will swirl. Worst-case scenario — he settles into life as a “middle-six” tweener rather than the elite winger the Rangers envision.
If Lafreniere proves to be more passenger than driver this coming season, more of a complementary piece than franchise cornerstone, or worse, the Rangers have a big problem.
Lafreniere should be entering his prime years. With Panarin able to become an unrestricted free agent next summer, Lafreniere should be in line to be the top wing on the roster.
But all of that washes away if he struggles to take that next big step in 2025-26.
The Rangers cut bait with three of their recent first-round picks in the past year. They traded away Kaapo Kakko, Filip Chytil, and K’Andre Miller, determining each was no longer a core piece moving forward.
Could that happen with Lafreniere after a mediocre or disappointing 2025-26 season? Surely, the Rangers would sell low but general manager Chris Drury has proven unafraid of making such decisions.
The breaking point is clearly there. But it does feel like a Lafreniere breakout is more likely this coming season.
The answer will come soon enough.
