New York Rangers defensemen, goalies 2024-25 floor & ceiling projections
There aren’t many changes on the New York Rangers defense corps this season, nor among their goalies, from a year ago. But individual statistical projections could fluctuate and bear watching.
One change on the defense corps when the Rangers hit the ice to start the season Oct. 9 against the Pittsburgh Penguins is that Zac Jones will be on the third pair — elevated from his 7th defenseman role of last season.
Also, with Ryan Lindgren out with an upper-body injury, there’s a chance that either Connor Mackey or rookie Victor Mancini could be in the lineup, or make the roster as the 7th D-man if Chad Ruhwedel replaces Lindgren, for the time being.
That’s a temporary thing. Once Lindgren returns, the Rangers are set on the left side with Lindgren, K’Andre Miller and Jones; and on the right with Adam Fox, Jacob Trouba and Braden Schneider.
The goaltending duo remains the same. Igor Shesterkin is the unquestioned No. 1 and Jonathan Quick is the valuable veteran backup.
Related: New York Rangers forwards 2024-25 ceiling & floor projections
Floor, ceiling projections for New York Rangers defensemen this season
Here’s a breakdown of the ceiling and floor stats projections for the Rangers defensemen and goalies in 2024-25.
Defensemen
Adam Fox
Ceiling: 20 goals, 60 assists, 80 points-100 points
Floor: 10 goals, 40 assists, 50 points
The bar was set high for Fox following two trades that ultimately guided him to the only team he wanted to play for. The 26-year-old then joined Bobby Orr as the only defenseman to ever win the Norris Trophy in his second NHL season. He’s averaged 23:04 TOI and 62 points (11 goals, 51 assists) in his five-year career. He’s record 70+ points each of the past three seasons, including last season (73) when he missed 10 games with a knee injury.
This is why his ceiling is 80 points or more. His surgical, methodical style of play is often overlooked compared to Cale Makar’s explosiveness and Quinn Hughes’s mobility. Yet, The Athletic projects that he is so valuable his contract should be worth $14 million a year, five sheets more than what he’s earning at $9.5 million.
There may come a time when he reaches the 100 points. The only Rangers defenseman to eclipse that mark was Brian Leetch, who had 102 points in 1991-92. There may not be another rearguard in the next decade on this team that is capable of that feat. Fox is a first-pairing, power-play quarterback, NHL-All-Star, and Norris Trophy winner. He can be more than a perennial 70-point defender.
Jacob Trouba
Ceiling: 10 goals, 20 assists, 30 points
Floor: 2 goals, 13 assists, 15 points
The prior Rangers regime saw Trouba as a 50-point scoring defender who could run the power play and had an edge to his game. That was before they inked him to the first major contract of the rebuild, though the only time Trouba hit that point total — before or since — was with the Winnipeg Jets in 2018-19. Now, his seven-year, $56 million contract is an albatross.
He shifted into a controversial but energizing force on the blue line, leaning into his physical side and earning the “C” as voted on by his Rangers teammates. He ranked fourth in the NHL in hits and blocked shots in 2022-23, and 12th in 2023-24.
Trouba needs a bounce-back season following a disappointing season, poor postseason and a tumultuous summer. Thirty points and a reasonable plus-minus are not a want, but a need for the club to reach its ultimate goal. The 50-point mark at this point is not a realistic expectation, but his improved defensive play against elite NHL talent and an increased point total should help quiet the noise around the most important sink-or-swim player on the team.
Ryan Lindgren
Ceiling: 15 points
Floor: Below 10 points
Lindgren’s 15-point average is steady for five seasons now as the 26-year-old heads into his final season before he can become an unrestricted free agent. But points are not what Lindgren is about.
The 2023 Steven McDonald Extra Effort Award winner’s character is beloved by the organization. Fox’s long-time partner is a throwback stay-at-home defender, who allows his partner to freelance offensively. He’s as tough as they come, a true gamer, though right now sidelined with an upper-body injury.
Lindgren is like former Rangers defensemen Dan Girardi, Jeff Beukeboom and Tom Laidlaw, and in some ways more reliable than those names. The key this season for Lindgren is to do what he’s done best, leave it all out on the ice, but somehow remain healthy.
K’Andre Miller
Ceiling: 10 goals, 40 assists, 50 points
Floor: 5 goals, 20 assists, 25 points
Miller doesn’t have a ceiling. He is a rare athlete standing 6’5 but as athletic and agile as any skater on the ice, forward or defender. At 24 years old, he’s also heading into a contract year, since he can be an RFA at season’s end.
What is striking is his career high in points is 43 (9 goals, 34 assists) two seasons ago. When you watch his play, he appears capable of posting 50-plus. But last season he dropped to 30 points (8 goals, 22 assists) and scored only one goal in 16 postseason games.
The St. Paul, Minnesota native is still maturing. If Trouba bounces back, or he plays with a steady partner in Braden Schneider, it may allow Miller to tap into his offensive talents more. It also remains to be seen if he will run the second power-play unit, which could scrape out a handful more points.
Braden Schneider
Ceiling: 7 goals, 20 assists, 27 points
Floor: 2 goals, 10 assists, 12 points
“Baby Trouba” plays the same game as the team captain but doesn’t have the pressure of the “C” nor the contract and experience. The 23-year-old’s ceiling is only a little bit better than what he has shown he is capable of already, 19 points (5 goals, 14 assists) last season.
Schneider doesn’t walk the blue line as smoothly as a puck-moving defender, and at times that becomes costly, to the team’s overall o-zone time. He is a solid defender, though, capable of playing second-pair minutes. Perhaps with more ice-time, he can easily pass his floor projections.
Like most of the Rangers roster, this team won 54 games last season with each player’s strengths and weaknesses exposed throughout. The 23-year-old should progress, but if he struggles there is insulation. His cap hit won’t financially damage the club’s immediate future.
Zac Jones
Ceiling: 5 goals, 15 assists, 20 points
Floor: 7th defenseman
Jones’s ceiling is playing a full NHL season as a third-pairing defender, with his transition game and speed adding offense while complimenting heavier partners. The 23-year-old has performed well in the preseason (five points), adding to his already intriguing resume from the end of the 2023-24 season, when he stepped in with solid play amid injuries on the defense corps.
His floor would be struggling with a full-time role and ultimately being demoted to be the 7th defenseman. That’s not likley, but is a possibility. As for spending more time in Hartford, there’s no way he’d make it through waivers.
The most NHL games he’s played was 31 last year. He not only has to survive on the third pairing in the big leagues, he must contribute. He’s more than capable of that at his best, but what will Jones look like in the NHL at his worst?
Chad Ruhwedel
Ceiling: 3 goals, 5 assists, 8 points
Floor: 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points
Ruhwedel is the front-runner to be the 7th defenseman this season. The veteran has never had more than 13 points in a season (2021-22 with the Pittsburgh Penguins), so don’t expect much offense from him this season.
Assuming he plays roughly the same amount of games as Jones did last season (31), it’s fair to say Ruhwedel will be close to his floor projections. Those are the numbers he put up in 52 games with the Rangers and Penguins last season.
Goalies
Igor Shesterkin
Ceiling: 40 wins, .921 save percentage, 2.37 GAA
Floor: 30 wins, .910 save percentage, 2.60 GAA
Putting aside the contract talk for a moment, Shesterkin can win the Vezina Trophy again if he doesn’t slump as hard as he had in the middle of last season.
That stretch saw the 28-year-old post a 4-6-0 record in January, when he surrendered five or more goals in five of 10 contests. He still finished fourth in Vezina Trophy voting with a 36-17-2 record, 2.58 GAA, and a .913 save percentage.
Of every player mentioned in these projections, Shesterkin should be the safest bet to achieve another great season.
Jonathan Quick
Ceiling: 25 games, 2.70 GAA, .905 SV%
Floor: 10 games, 3.00 GAA, .900 SV%
The 38-year-old three-time Stanley Cup champion winning 18 games was the surprise of last season. He was a crucial part of the team earning its highest win total in Rangers history and the Presidents’ Trophy.
His play in 2023-24 may be repeatable, but that shouldn’t be the expectation for Quick. The one-time starters’ numbers were outstanding for a goaltender stepping in for one of the best in the game, and if it weren’t for Shesterkin’s slump, he may not have seen as many games.
Quick should hover around a similar stat total, but he should not play more than 20 games next year unless an injury or massive slump is going on with his counterpart who’s eyeing the biggest goaltending contract in NHL history.
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