Why Alexis Lafreniere can be Rangers game-changer if he overcomes big issue
A glance at Alexis Lafreniere’s overall statistical picture through 13 games of the New York Rangers season raises eyebrows, given the gap between what advanced stats strongly suggest his production level should be, and what it actually is.
The 24-year-old forward boasts a robust 64.1 expected goal share, and even more impressive numbers when it comes to scoring chances. The Rangers out-chance opponents 90-62 and an eye-popping 47-16 in the high-danger category with Lafreniere on the ice 5v5, per Natural Stat Trick.
Without access to his goal and assist totals, one might reasonably conclude that Lafreniere is among the League leaders in scoring. That’s not even close to being the case, however, with the top overall pick in the 2020 NHL Draft sitting on one goal and five assists. He’s gone 11 games without scoring a goal, though does have three assists in his past three games.
Yet, his minus-7 rating for the season is all the more befuddling, given the bevy of indicators that Lafreniere is driving positive play for his team.
Alexis Lafreniere’s underlying numbers might indicate a breakout soon
In theory, the Rangers should be very encouraged by those trends, and are no doubt hoping that Lafreniere’s low point total is an anomaly, the function of a small sample size that’s sure to lead to a correction. As lopsided as Lafreniere’s positive impact appears to be, the Rangers are out-scored 8-5 with him on at 5-on-5 so far – a situation that’s surely unsustainable if he continues his positive play.
What also appears unsustainable is Lafreniere’s shooting percentage, which sits at an absurdly low 3.3 percent. He’s had some absurdly glorious Grade-A scoring chances, both at even strength and on the power play, but consistently failed to finish.
With 30 shots on goal for the season, Lafreniere is averaging 2.3 per game, which isn’t high but represents the second-best mark of his career. It seems clear that some bad puck luck – both for him and the Rangers – is skewing Lafreniere’s production.
There’s little question that Lafreniere must shoot more – he averaged a career-best 2.6 shots a game during the 2023-24 season, when he also set career highs with 28 goals and 29 assists – and he may have found the right running mates to help him do so. Coach Mike Sullivan shuffled his forward combinations midway through the comeback win against the Edmonton Oilers on Thursday, putting Lafreniere with ascendant rookie center Noah Laba and left wing Will Cuylle.
That line helped spark a rally from a two-goal deficit, with their dynamic, straight-ahead work contributing to a 4-3 overtime victory. They followed up that performance with a dominant group effort in a 3-2 OT win over the Seattle Kraken, posting a 77.1 expected goal share in 11:01 TOI together.
Laba finished an impressive rush by the line by banging in a rebound off a Cuylle shot in the first period, with Lafreniere getting the secondary assist. Cuylle also scored the winner by converting J.T. Miller’s perfect pass at 2:42 of the extra period, sending the Rangers home with a 3-1-0 road trip and their first three game winning streak since last November.
In their parts of two games together, Lafreniere-Laba-Cuylle posted an 82.9 expected goal share. Accordingly, there seems little chance that Sullivan will break them up for the home match against the Carolina Hurricanes on Tuesday.
“I thought their line was good. … ‘Laf’ was a big part of that line also,” Sullivan said after the win Saturday.
Cuylle, who also got off to a slow start offensively this season before recording a goal and four assists over the past four games, agreed.
“Laf’s so creative with the puck.”
Rangers need more production from Alexis Lafreniere as they struggle to score
Lafreniere looks energized by the relentless style of his fellow 20-something linemates, and the organization certainly hopes that leads to an offensive resurgence for the Quebec native. Signed to a seven-year, $52 million extension last October after his supposed breakout 2023-24 season, there’s little doubt that Lafreniere’s regression in 2024-25 led to at least some panic in the front office.
Lafreniere slipped to 17 goals and 28 assists last season, and his overall game regressed alarmingly as well, with questions about effort and desire re-emerging when he struggled with defensive responsibilities and 200-foot play. At least for now, though, there appears to be ample reason for optimism that the 2023-24 version of Lafreniere could be ready to return.
Back then, Lafreniere’s game rose as the right wing on a line with veterans Artemi Panarin and Vincent Trocheck. Hie linemates posted career seasons, highlighted by Panarin’s 120-point outburst, second most prolific in franchise history.
Having already gotten off to a strong start in terms of play driving this season, Lafreniere meshed well over the past two games with a different pair of linemates who play with pace and attack the net. Lafreniere is at his best when he’s around the crease, having done plenty of his damage from in close in 2023-24.
Sullivan seems very likely to bank on that style remaining infectious for Lafreniere as the Rangers try to get more scoring out of him. The new coach instilled the Rangers with a strong sense of defensive responsibility and structure. They are second in the League, allowing 2.38 goals against per game. That number, however, also represents their scoring average, which is 31st in the NHL. That’s contributed heavily to them being winless in five games (0-4-1) at Madison Square Garden, where they’ve scored six goals – five coming in one contest.
The Blueshirts are ultimately paying Lafreniere an average of $7.4 million per season through 2031-32 to put the puck in the net, not just post pretty possession metrics. Those, however, seem to signal that the goals will come eventually. Sullivan certainly hopes so. The Rangers definitely need them.
