Rangers concern-o-meter: Measuring biggest issues after 1st 10 games
The first 10 games of their centennial season haven’t been the smooth ride the New York Rangers had hoped for, especially coming off a terribly disappointing 2024-25 campaign.
The Rangers (3-5-2) have the second-worst points percentage (.400) in the Eastern Conference, though they are only two points out of the second wild card. They’re also the second-lowest scoring team in the NHL (2.20 goals per game), have a minus-4 goal differential, and remain winless at home (0-4-1).
Of course, there are still 72 games remaining over the next six months or so for the Rangers to get their act together. So, there’s no reason for panic to set in. And there are plenty of good things they did in the first 10 games, notably taking points in four of five road contests (3-1-1).
However, there’s plenty be concerned about. Let’s break down the biggest issues to date, and how concerning each is, using a 1-10 scale, with one being least concerning.
Rangers have zero home-ice advantage at MSG: 6/10
Let’s start with this: The Rangers won’t remain winless at Madison Square Garden this season. OK, that was an easy take. But 0-4-1 on home ice with three shutout losses already is fairly brutal and does it make it more difficult to wind up with a really good mark by season’s end.
Couple that with their 19-19-3 record at home last season — NHL .500 despite technically losing three more games than they won — and there’s legitimate reason to believe the Rangers are a mediocre team at MSG. Of course, it was only two years ago that the Rangers set a franchise record with 30 wins at home. But that decided home-ice advantage feels like a long time ago now.
It’s a case of cause and effect at The Garden. When things are going well for the Rangers, it’s a tough place for opponents to play. But when the Rangers aren’t so good, the fans are restless and the players get uptight, so it can be a nightmare at home. Expect more of the latter than the former this season.
Igor Shesterkin lost his magic touch: 2/10
After a simply brilliant start to the season, Shesterkin allowed 11 goals in consecutive losses to two of the worst teams in the League — a 6-5 overtime defeat at home to the San Jose Sharks, and a 5-1 road loss to the Calgary Flames. Let’s not sugarcoat this — Shesterkin wasn’t good in either game. Perhaps he was affected by shoddy defensive play in front of him, but no excuses. Shesterkin is the Rangers’ most important player, their rock. They don’t win when he’s off his game.
Of course, they lost a few when he was spectacular, too, earlier in the season. But the odds here favor Shesterkin bouncing back soon and resuming his elite play. He does need to be aware that opponents are testing him high-glove for a reason. So, that’s an area to clean up. If we thought for some reason ‘Shesty’ was shot, the concern-o-meter would overheat and spin out of control. But that’s not the case. He should be fine moving forward.
This is who Alexis Lafreniere is: 8/10
Yet again this season, Alexis Lafreniere is driving play for the Rangers, and even leads them with a 60.29 percent expected goals share 5v5, per Natural Stat Trick. When he’s on the ice, the Rangers hold a whopping 34-14 edge in high-danger scoring chances. Yet the Rangers have been outscored 7-3 with Lafreniere playing even strength — and even with a chance to play on the top power-play unit and with his average TOI at a career-high 18:10, Lafreniere has one goal and two assists through 10 games.
For sure, he’s had some of the best Grade-A looks of any Rangers player this season. And it reasons that his hard-to-believe 3.8 shooting percentage will improve more to his career norm of roughly 13 percent. But haven’t we seen this before? Doing a lot of the right things offensively, yet incapable of breaking out? Plus, there’s his inadequate defensive play.
Really, it’s fair to question if he’ll ever be a star in the NHL. That’s tough to swallow since, you know, he was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 draft. This isn’t about who’s to blame. This is about Lafreniere, now 24 years old, showing us who he is as a player. Not what we want him to be, but who he is. It’s looking like that 2023-24 season (28 goals, 57 points) is the anomaly.
“Egregious” defensive lapses aren’t a blip: 7/10
After a disciplined, structured start to the season defensively, the Rangers reverted to being, well, the Rangers. That’s concerning because even when the Rangers reached the Eastern Conference Finals in 2022 and 2024, their defensive play was often sloppy and full of turnovers and blown assignments. Never was that more true than last season, when the Rangers seemed to bottom out and Peter Laviolette was fired.
Things looked far different — and better — under Mike Sullivan to start this season. Fewer giveaways, a better job clearing rebounds and limiting second chances, less running around, more attention to detail and a higher compete level. It wasn’t perfect and there were cracks, as to be expected, but then things came crashing down in those inexcusable losses to the Sharks and Flames.
Is this simply who the Rangers are, no matter the coaching philosophy and game plan? Are they not capable of committing themselves to play with sound defensive structure? Must it always be that Shesterkin or Jonathan Quick routinely stands on his head to secure two points? Or shall this stretch of “egregious” defensive play — in the coach’s words — be a blip in an otherwise successful season?
It’s 2024-25 all over again: 5/10
To that end, is it fair to say it’s 2024-25 all over again? The defense isn’t good enough, the power play no longer saves them, there’s not enough quality depth on the roster, their scoring struggles won’t go away and the clutch gene is nowhere to be found.
It feels like that’s a rush to judgement, born from the PTSD of a truly disastrous season a year ago. The biggest season to believe this is not a 2024-25 rerun is that these Rangers are playing hard, their compete level is legit. That’s setting a low bar, but it’s fair to begin there because the Rangers’ biggest issue last season was a galling lack of effort on far too many nights.
You also see it postgame. The fire and anger are there, from Sullivan and captain J.T. Miller and on through the locker room. There are similar issues to last season that must be addressed, yes. But this doesn’t have the same terrible vibe and body language and woe-is-me feel to it. So, there’s reason to be optimistic, despite some legit red flags early on.
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