FullTilt Rangers was built by a fan for the fans. With that in mind, we always try and cater to our audience and give them a forum to express their thoughts. Although it’s been awhile, one reader of the site asked to guest blog and we were happy to oblige.

Why Corsi is Flawed a Stat

Recently, the use of advanced analytics, or “fancy stats”, have divided the hockey community. Some argue that they are far and away the most accurate measure of a player’s peformance, while others insist that the old standby of watching a player and using the “eye test” is still the best way to go. There is almost no middle ground in the debate, as most people are firmly entrenched in one camp or another.

This article is not meant to debate whether fancy stats are good or bad for the game in general, but instead is meant to discuss one particular argument that came to light recently, which was the case of Dan Girardi vs Michael Kostka. One advanced analytics enthusiast recently presented to me the argument that Michael Kostka, a career minor leaguer who has only appeared in 70 career NHL games with 4 different teams at the age of 29, is a better defensive player than Dan Girardi, the former All Star and mainstay of the Rangers top defensive pairing for the last 7+ seasons. The basis for this argument? Kostka has a better career Corsi than Girardi.

For those not familiar with Corsi, I’ll provide a brief overview. Corsi measures the shots attempted for and against a players team while that player is on the ice. Any shot attempted by your team (this includes shots on goal, blocked shots, shot attempts that go wide, etc.) while you are on the ice increases your Corsi, while any shot attempt by the opposing team while you are on the ice decreases your Corsi. For example: If you were on the ice for 10 attempted shots by your team, and 5 attempted shots by the other team, your Corsi would be a +5. Conversely, if you were on the ice for 5 attempted shots by your team and 10 attempted shots by the opposing team, your Corsi would be -5. For those of us familiar with the traditional +/- stat, think of Corsi as essentially a version of +/- that measures shot attempts instead of goals. Now, there are much more advanced measures of different types of Corsi, and I don’t pretend to be an expert by any means, but what I’ve presented is the bare bones gist of the stat.

I have no issue with the existence of Corsi or fancy stats in general, or their use as a supplemental tool that can be used in addition to other stats and (most importantly to me at least), evaluating a player based on watching their performace. The issue I have is the idea that you can say that one player is better than another, using only one specific stat as the basis for your argument. To me, the fact that Girardi has been a top pair defenseman on a very succesful team for a long time, and is regarded by most NHL GM’s as one of the most steady and underrated defenders in the game, while Kostka has been sent to the AHL for the majority of his time with 4 different teams in the last 4 years, matters much more than any stat. As does the level of play I have observed from each while watching their in-game action.

Let’s examine a particular scenario that came to my mind that will demonstrate some of the things that a stat like Corsi doesn’t take into account. I think anyone who has seen Kostka and Girardi play will agree that this scenario is entirely plausible, and could easily happen in an actual game situation:

Now let’s say that over the course of a game, the Rangers attempt 5 shots while Kostka is on the ice, while the opposing team only attempts 3 shots, but those 3 shots are all goals that are scored off of blatant turnovers by Kostka. Despite the 3 goals that were a direct result of his poor play, he would have a positive Corsi of +2 (5 attempts for, minus 3 attempts against = 2).

Continuing along, in the same game the Rangers attempt 5 shots while Girardi is on the ice, and the opposing team attempts 10 shots, but Girardi blocks all 10 and no goals are scored. Despite blocking all 10 shot attempts, Girardi would have a poor Corsi of -5 (5 attempts for, minus 10 attempts against = -5).

Someone who was watching the game would see that Giradi had a tremendous defensive game, while Kostka had a very poor game. Conventional statistics would back that up as well. The box score would show that Girardi had 10 blocked shots and an Even +/-, while Kostka would have 0 blocked shots and a -3 +/-. To someone who measured the game by Corsi alone, however, it would appear that Kosta had the better game with his +2 Corsi compared to Girardi’s -5 Corsi.

Of course the argument can be made that this is an isolated scenario with a small sample size, but as I said previously, anyone who has watched Girardi and Kosta play with the Rangers would agree that scenarios very similar to this one could (and possibly even have) occurred. The point I’m trying to make is that the game of hockey is very hard to measure based on any one statistic alone. Not just Corsi, but any particular statistic by itself can be misleading, and rarely paints an accurate picture of one players value. It takes a combination of a number of different statistics, in addition to observing a player over time to appreciate his intangibles that can’t be measured by statistics (heart, toughness, grit, team chemistry, leadership, skating ability, vision) to get the full picture.

By: Louis Giordano (@NYR30_)

Evander Kane used all of his 6’2″, 200 lbs frame to put Ryan McDonagh into the boards. The Rangers captain went down in a heap on the ice. The look on his face indicated he’s felt this before and it wasn’t good.

Kevin Klein took a shot off his foot earlier (being called a bruise for now) and didn’t return. The Rangers basically played most of the game with just 4 defenseman. A game that went into OT nonetheless, where even 1 point was a triumph.

Jets 1 vs Rangers 0 (shootout)

It was late last season when Ryan McDonagh was nailed high and hard by Alex Burrows in Vancouver. The injury caused Ryan to miss the final 5 regular season games before returning to the playoffs. It tool Ryan almost a series and half (about 3 weeks) to look right. According to reports he had no structural damage then, today he will be evaluated along with Kevin Klein to see the extent of the their injuries.

If both Klein and McDonagh are unable to go Monday, the Rangers will be in dire straits. That would put 4 of their top 6 defenseman out with injury or suspension (John Moore).  According to the rumor mill the Rangers were already hunting for an NHL caliber defensman, it should intensify now.

Names like Andrej Sekera of the Carolina Hurricanes have been bandied about, but the Rangers would need to make any deal fit into a tight cap space. Be aware of anonymous social media accounts I have already seen trade rumors involving star defenseman like Yandle and Byfuglein (now on RW). NY doesn’t have the cap space.

As for the game, it was decided on an Evander Kane shootout goal over Lundqvist’s blocker. After the loss the King had this to say about his defense, “It was a great opportunity for a couple of guys to get more minutes. I thought they played outstanding.”

The Blueshirts will continue a string of games in Novemeber where they will play 15 times in 30 days. It will be a lot of hockey for a group that is hurting and on the mend. Alain Vigneault said after the game, “we will deal with it tomorrow.” McDonagh and Klein will have MRI’s today, the Rangers will then take it from there.

FOR A LAUGH

Kevin Hayes was interviewed in between periods last night. You could tell the kid was a bit nervous because when the interview was over, he got up before Al Trautwig finished and forgot to remove the microphone. Comedy ensued and a laugh was had by all. Here’s our comic book stylized version of what happened.

RAGING RANGERS

1-4 – Dan Girardi, Marc Staal, Matt Hunwick and Michael Kostka were all incredible under difficult circumstances.

Final #NYR Defense TOI tonight Girardi 34:50 Staal 29:33 Hunwick 27:58 Kostka 21:56 McDonagh 6:42 Klein 1:14 #WPGvsNYR @NHLFantasy

— Matt Sitkoff (@msitkoffNHL) November 2, 2014

REELING RANGERS

I’m giving everyone a pass tonight after a bear down “all hands on deck” effort.

HIGHLIGHTS & VIDEOS

The New York Rangers have given up 30 goals in 9 games this season and rank 22nd out of 30 teams in that category. Dan Boyle’s broken hand has had a negative impact for sure, which became compounded by the poor play of fill-ins Matt Hunwick and Michael Kostka.

To his credit, Matt Hunwick has improved with each game and is starting to contribute. Since his sub-par performance in a 6-3 home-opening night drubbing to Toronto, he’s registered 2 assists and an even rating in 5 games (4 of which are wins).

Now that John Moore has cost himself and the Rangers with a 5 game ban on an irresponsible hit, Mike Kostka returns to the lineup. In context, Kostka wouldn’t even be on the Rangers if not for Boyle’s hand injury. The last we saw Kostka he set up 2 Islanders for goals in a 6-3 loss.

Meanwhile down in Tampa Bay, Anton Stralman has registered another point as of the writing of this article (assist in the 1st period tonight vs. Philly). This gives Stralman 8 points in 10 games with a +9 for the Lightning. It makes you wonder if the Rangers would’ve been better off finding a way to keep Stralman.

Stralman has been a stabilizing force for the Lightning this season. He’s also sporting a 57.3 CF% according to Puckalytics.com (Corsi – shots plus all shots attempts that missed the net or blocked). “Anton Stralman is an outstanding defenseman,” Lightning coach Jon Cooper told local reporters.

After a 7-2 pounding by the Minnesota Wild, Cooper heaped praise on Stralman. “He found a way to come out a plus-1, that’s pretty impressive, and he plays 20 minutes.” However, Cooper knew what he was getting. His assistant coach, Rick Bowness got a call from his old buddy, Alain Vigneault. “You’re going to love this guy,” Bowness recounted.

So why did it go south in NY? Why did Glen Sather turn away from one of his top 4 blue liners and a perfect defense partner for Marc Staal? Money? Rumor has it that before the deadline Anton turned down a 3 year – 3 million dollar deal. After the season, negotiations were minimal and Stralman’s camp never heard from the Rangers again, leaving him angry.

Eventually, Stralman would sign a 5 year deal with an AAV of 4.5 million in Tampa Bay. The lack of a State Income Tax means an equivalent deal in NY would need to be around 5 million plus. Money does seem like the likely culprit as Dan Boyle signed for the same money (AAV wise) but for only 2 seasons.

Still, what if the Rangers could’ve signed Boyle AND kept Stralman? It surely would’ve signaled the end of John Moore as a Ranger, but his current play and recent suspension may have already done that.

At this moment, there are a ton of Rangers’ fans and experts who probably feel that they would be better off with Stralman. Michael Kostka re-entering the line up may only further exacerbate that. Yet, the Rangers top 6 defense has played a total of 41 or so minutes together before Boyle broke his hand.

Would the Rangers really be better off with Stralman? Maybe, but we won’t know for certain until the top 6 are together. Still, if Glen Sather had a crystal ball and saw this coming he probably would’ve kept Stralman. I bet right now, he’d like that move back.

John Moore has been suspended 5 games for his elbow to the head of Minnesota Wild forward Erik Haula.

NYR John Moore gets a five-game suspension.

— Bob McKenzie (@TSNBobMcKenzie) October 29, 2014

Stephane Quintal and the Department of Player safety came down pretty hard on John Moore who is a repeat offender. The previous incident came as recent as this past post season, where Moore was suspended for a headshot on Montreal’s Dale Weise.

Michael Kostka is expected to take his place in the lineup.

Alain Vigneault on #NYR d-man situation: “I’m comfortable w/ the 7 guys we have here.” Says Rangers will “go with 6” if Moore is suspended.

— Sean Hartnett (@HartnettHockey) October 29, 2014

Oh boy, but it sure does look like Alain Vigneault’s Rangers like to come out of the gate sputtering. Last night, the Blueshirts had the Islanders where they wanted them, but couldn’t seal the deal and then imploded in the process.

Injuries to Derek Stepan and Dan Boyle are a fact, but in the NHL they can’t be used as an excuse. Michael Kostka replaced Matt Hunwick on defense last night. It was done to restore right/left balance to the defense pairings. After Kostka’s performance,  Hunwick looks like Larry Robinson.

Islanders 6 vs. Rangers 3

Rick Nash once again opened the scoring for the Rangers early in the first and then NY recaptured the lead 3:50 into the second. Then Kostka happened.

With the Rangers up 2-1 in the 2nd period, Kostka played the puck behind the net. Not realizing the forecheck pressure coming he coughed it up to Nikolai Kulemin, who hit the Islanders best player, John Tavares in stride for the tie with 4:57 remaining.

Then 48 seconds into the third, Kostka inexcusably played the puck up the middle and found Kyle Okposo alone in the slot – bang 3-2! I assure you it was the finest pass of Michael Kostka’s career. He finished the night -2 with 3 horrible turnovers in just 15:42 of action.

The Islanders would go on to score 3 more goals as the Rangers were victims of bad bounces and overcompensating on plays. Alain Vigneault continued to trot out Kostka for the simple reason, in game 4 of the season of a blowout, there is no need to wear out your players. “You have to give them an opportunity to play through them and contribute, find a way to bounce back,” AV said after the game.

Lundqvist who was visibly frustrated talked about “smartness” on the ice. “I’m playing with good structure, but then I lose my structure a little bit when we as a group lose our structure,” Hank explained. “Together we need to regroup and be better.”

They get that chance soon, Thursday against the depleted Carolina Hurricanes.

P.S. Maybe the Rangers should’ve kept Justin Falk?

Raging Rangers

1. Rick Nash, that is all! Seriously, this start is amazing and he looks healthy. It’s taken a season and half (lockout year), but this is the player we traded for.

2. Kevin Hayes, he looked amazing last night. He was hard and fast on the puck all game. Hayes used his big body to protect the puck and make plays. Although he finished with a -1, he registered 2 shots, 3 hits and a takeaway in just 13:55 of ice.

3. Lee Stempniak, he continues to put it out there every night and is a huge safety net for young guys. Last night it was with Hayes on the wing. Stempniak picked up an assist yesterday and has 2G and 2A in 4 games. (FYI: Pouliot has 1A in 3 games for the Oilers and makes 4 million dollars a year)

Reeling Rangers

1. Henrik Lundqvist, notoriously a slow starter (when compared to his performance later in the season), Hank looks like he is not playing his game and trying to do to much. Certainly shades of last season. He needs to let the game come to him and it will work out.

2. Mats Zuccarello, the hobbit is finding it a lot tougher sledding this season. Yes, he is probably banged up, but he doesn’t look like the same player from last year. However, he had some moments last night, and all it may take is a goal to get him going.

3. The Entire Rangers Defense, disjointed and indecisive is the best way I can describe their play under pressure. Settle down boys.

Highlights and Interviews

Is the defensive zone a concern after three games? No, not really. Not after game three and only loss number two. We all remember how last season began and how bad the team was the first month of the season. This is a new season though and there’s enough core players from last season to know the system. Even with the roster turnover and rookies filling full time roster spots, the eleven goals allowed the last two games is a bit alarming.

The chemistry will take time to form as lines are shuffled until injured players return.

In their defense the New York Rangers have four rookies and a journeyman defenseman playing the right side as a lefty. They are playing without one of their best defensive forwards and top line centerman Derek Stepan. Dan Boyle was supposed to help out with those big power plays but he lasted two periods of the season before making way for Matt Hunwick and now Mike Kostka.

The New York Rangers strength is their speed, skating ability and stifiling defense.

The New York Rangers have had their fair share of hard luck already this season. That’s part of the game though and any team with even playoff aspirations has to over come. The fact of the matter is the New York Rangers have not been playing their game. That game includes speed, puck persuit and defense.

Some of the rookies are in the lineup right now out of necessity and others are there as short term call ups. Anthony Duclair has been a nice story so far this season and has made me a believer. I think the “Duke” has a real shot at staying for at the least most of the season. He’s been real good and hasn’t looked out of place. He’s made some mistakes but it doesn’t faze him the next shift or even the next time he can get the puck.

J.T. Miller has had his moments with the puck. He’s quick with it and he’s not affraid to make a play. Without the puck on the other hand, he has been weak to say the least. He’s a minus four in three games so far and that’s from the last two games. He isn’t able to play center because of the defensive responsibilities, they’re over his head. The New York Rangers really need a centerman for the middle of the lineup. The third pivot is vaccated by the injury to Derek Stepan. So far he has looked better on the wing. Tonight he is scratched in favor of Ryan Malone.

Jesper Fast is a real nice young player and possibly the most NHL ready in the New York Rangers pipeline (not named Duclair). He isn’t suited for the fourth line though. His skill set is better suited for a top nine role on the roster but there’s a log jam on the wing in NY. It’s one place the Rangers have a ton of depth.

It looks like he would be better served playing top six or top nine minutes in Hartford. We saw a glimpse of what he can do in the preseason, he just needs a little more seasoning. That way he could be an asset later in the year if another injury hits. Tonight, he will be scratched as Mats Zuccarello returns to the lineup.

New York’s problems are temporary. When Derek Stepan returns a lot of this chaos and confusion will settle. Same goes for the return of Dan Boyle. However, this does show that some of the young and depth players aren’t ready for primetime. At least, not yet.

OFFICIAL: #NYR have recalled defenseman @Kostka85 from the @WolfPackAHL. Kostka had 1a & was +2 in 4 preseason games. pic.twitter.com/klbAJjVMMi

— New York Rangers (@NYRangers) October 10, 2014

The right-handed Kostka was a bit of surprise for me as I thought Conor Allen would get the call. Apparently, Vigneault felt it would be best to let Allen to continue to develop in Hartford.

Expect to see Matt Hunwick in the lineup tomorrow.

Rangers are in Columbus practicing as they prepare to face the Blue Jackets tomorrow.

The Rangers dropped a 3-0 decision in an effort that can be easily classified as lackluster. When asked about the game, AV said, “It was like the last game of exhibition, that’s what it was like.”

Devils 3 – Rangers 0

Cam Talbot was inconsistent for most of the night stopping 21 of 24 shots. He was brilliant on some stops but the first goal by Tuomo Ruutu was a loss of concentration. It was deflected but Talbot reacted slowly and it tricked through with less than a minute to go in the first period.

Of course, had Mueller or Lindberg buried either one of their prime chances in the early going, the game could’ve looked different.

Jaromir Jagr who looked explosive last night (wait till December), snuck past a sleeping Matt Hunwick in front to tap in a rebound for a 2-0 lead. Earlier, Jagr embarrassed Steven Kampfer by stick handling him off his feet. It all but certain took him out of the mix for the 7th defense spot.

On the other hand, Mike Kostka had a particularly strong game. Playing both the penalty kill and power play, he showed his versatility. It will certainly come down to either Kostka or Hunwick on “Moves Monday”.

The final tally came off a point shot that highlighted Talbot’s inconsistent play. Dainius Zubrus deflected a Damon Severson shot in between the two circles that snuck through Talbot’s legs. Talbot certainly had plenty of time to react to the shot and looked a hair slow again. This could prove to be a harder season for the sensational rookie from last year.

The “Duke” of NY

Last night, Anthony Duclair had his worst game of the preseason, going -2. With that said, it was also a game where he played with a rusty Matthew Lombardi at center. Vigneault commented on his play with, “is that just him or a reflection of how he and his linemates got together.”

Bottom line here is that Anthony Duclair has made this team. If he is sent down on Monday, I will be shocked. Vigneault spoke as if he made it last night, “I think if we want him to stay, we’re going to find a way to make it happen.”

What Vigneault is referencing is the Rangers at the 50 contract limit. The likely move of Derek Stepan to longterm IR will allow the Blueshirts to carry the extra forward they will  need for the first 5-6 weeks of the season. A move to LTIR means Stepan can’t return until after 10 games.

Future In Hayes

Kevin Hayes was scratched last night due to a sore shoulder. No further information was released and it was classified as a “tweak”.

If the injury is significant enough that there is uncertainty by Thursday’s opener, Kevin Hayes will most assuredly start the season in Hartford.

Fulltilt Forecast: Roster Predictions

 Game Highlights

Dan Girardi:

JT Miller:

In today’s National Hockey League, defense is the glue that holds a team together. Especially through times of hard times during a long season. When things breakdown on the ice, the defense is usually the last line before something bad happens.

The New York Rangers over the past few years have made a killing off of their defensive core. Ryan McDonagh and Dan Girardi have blossomed into excellent hockey players, and became the faces of the Rangers’ defense in a hurry, and they also won the hearts of many fans with their gritty play.

Girardi blocks the most shots out of any player on the Rangers almost every season, and is usually right up there with other defensemen in the league. He sacrifices his body for the sake of winning the hockey game, and that’s what matters most.

McDonagh has evolved into a powerhouse for the team. He makes great defensive plays every night, is strong on the puck, and is also starting to find the offensive side of his game, which only means greater things lie ahead for the Minnesota native.

The Rangers defense this year, including McDonagh and Girardi, also features Marc Staal, John Moore, Kevin Klein, and newcomer Dan Boyle, who was signed as a free-agent over the summer.

This all rounds out into an excellent defensive core, and Alain Vigneault and his staff should call themselves lucky to have one so good.

But the main question floating around in everyone’s heads is “Who will the 7th d-man be?” It’s an interesting topic to think about, considering that the Rangers have some potential guys in the system, but would they be good enough to be on this roster and be a backup or substitute for the main stays?

After looking at this year’s training camp roster, here are the two candidates I thought of that could grab the spot:

Dylan McIlrath- A known player in the organization for a couple of seasons now, and he is aiming to make his mark with the Rangers. A strong, physical defenseman who has been getting seasoned in Hartford, but now he believes he can make the next step. He can fight, hit, and play some solid defense. Qualities that are valued highly by a coaching staff.

He just might be too young and green to get the nod.

Conor Allen- 24 years old, signed as an undrafted free agent back in March of 2013. He played well with the Wolf Pack last season, racking up 31 points in 72 games played, which for a young defenseman is quite good. He has been featured in three preseason games for New York so far in 2014, and he has looked a little shaky, and the likelihood of him being sent back down is high.

Michael Kostka- Looking for new beginnings after being an AHL player for most of his career, Kostka signed with the Rangers back in July, and ever since that moment, he’s been looking to prove why he deserves a spot on this roster. He is a capable defenseman who can limit scoring chances and prevent anything bad from happening. There could be a chance that Vigneault chooses him and gives him a fresh start.

Matt Hunwick- This man has the biggest chance of getting the 7th spot. He also signed with New York back in July, and is looking to crack the roster. At 29 years old, he has served with the Colorado Avalanche and the Boston Bruins, and is also a man who is capable of holding things together in the defensive zone.

With this Thursday marking the beginning of the regular season for the Rangers, Vigneault now has some decisions to make regarding his final roster.

When it comes to the 7th defenseman, I believe he will pick Hunwick because of his NHL experience and he is a little bit more seasoned than the other candidates.