2014 – 2015 New York Rangers Stat Predictions
Who will lead the Rangers in scoring? Who will score the most goals? Which defenseman will be the top point getter? All this is now at your finger tips.
I’m am no fancy stat guy by any stretch. Matter of fact, I failed high school algebra not once but twice! Impressive? I repeated the feat in college!
However, I learned how to use a calculator and spreadsheets really well in the subsequent years. Using the same strategy I deploy when drafting for my big money fantasy hockey leagues, I’ve forecasted next season’s starting NYR point totals. For the record, I have won several championships!
My formula is simple, I take career stats and get a per game average on goals, assists and points. From there I look at several factors to determine if a player is trending up or down.
- Age / Last 3 Year Scoring Trends (Young and Upcoming / Over the Hill)
- Age / Role (Example: Mats Zuccarello should see an increase in ice time)
- Breakout Potential (Age, Increased Role, Trends)
- Superstar Potential (Prime Years, Role, Trends)
At this point, good old hockey knowledge needs to kick in and determine if the player will have an uptick in production or regress. Ranges from -30% (Dominic Moore – year older, potential reduced role) to +50% (Ryan McDonagh – trends show large jumps year to year, increased role, huge potential) are added. Finally, apply the formula over a full 82 game season.
Well, see for yourself…
As expected, Marty St. Louis in a full season on Broadway will lead the team scoring with 84 points.
Rick Nash may break 40 goals this upcoming season, but we have him at 39.
On the blue line, it will be close, but we have Dan Boyle and his PP scoring prowess edging out Ryan McDonagh by 2 points, 54-52 respectively. Remember, this is based on 82 games.
Let it be known, I feel that Boyle will play less games, meaning McDonagh will lead the defense in scoring and pose a real threat to the other Norris Trophy candidates. This is his breakout year!
Many eyes will be on Chris Kreider too. We see a breakout coming next year, but he should threaten the 25 goal mark. For now, we have him at 23.
What about the progress of speedster, Carl Hagelin? More upswing we think, and the expanded role and ice time will give him a nice lift to the tune of 24 goals and 55 points.
Danger Rangers? Yeah, we hit those in Mats Zuccarello and Derek Stepan. Both are up to be UFA’s next summer if an extension can’t be worked out. Zucc improves to 64 points and Stepan comes in at 66. These numbers mean a longterm deal over 5 million a season. Do the Rangers need the cap to rise or what?!
We were conservative on Stepan’s potential, but he could actually produce at 40% better and break 70 points easy. This could be his coming out party.
As for JT Miller, there isn’t enough data to work with, but you have to assume a major increase in ice time will have a serious impact on his production.
Lastly, Lee Stempniak and Matthew Lombardi, both are in their 30’s playing reduced roles on this team. For that we knock back their production, but the results are still double digit goals for both. Combined they should outscore the duo they replaced in Benoit Pouliot and Brian Boyle.
The rest is there for you to review and comment on. Enjoy!