Rangers’ Lafreniere boosting his production by shooting more
There’s no shortage of theories on the topic of why New York Rangers forward Alexis Lafreniere has largely failed to live up to his NHL Draft pedigree as the No. 1 overall selection in 2020.
Possible reasons bandied about have ranged from poor coaching and development, to allegedly suspect work habits, to stunted growth as a result of being drafted in the heart of the COVID-19 pandemic, to him playing much of his career at right wing instead of on his natural left side. More extreme opinions proclaim him as a bust, lacking in elite skills and thus unworthy of having been the top pick in his draft year.
Whatever the case, Lafreniere has not emerged as a franchise-changing talent, as many of his fellow No. 1 overalls have. But one potential reason may be more simplistic and thus overlooked: Lafreniere doesn’t shoot the puck nearly enough to produce the kinds of numbers that star players do.
More shot attempts has Lafreniere looking like No. 1 overall pick
But that may finally be changing. The 24-year-old came into 2025-26 with a middling career per-game shot attempts-per-game average of 3.3, and he averaged 3.8 during this season’s first 60 games. But with “Laf” in the midst of perhaps the hottest stretch of his career, a big jump in shot attempts show a clear correlation between his production and his willingness to let it fly when the opportunity presents itself.
It’s hard to say whether departed star and frequent linemate Artemi Panarin actually hurt Lafreniere’s development with his puck-dominating style. But there’s no question that Lafreniere is more assertive offensively since Panarin was traded to the Los Angeles Kings on Feb. 4. That didn’t happen right away, as Panarin played his final game in a Blueshirt on Jan. 26. Over the next seven games, Lafreniere averaged 3.3 shot attempts — matching his career average.
In the 13 games since, however, Lafreniere flipped a switch. He averaged 5.2 shot attempts in that stretch, during which he piled up nine goals and eight assists. Lafreniere is playing with confidence and assertiveness while heeding coach Mike Sullivan’s urging for him to hold onto the puck longer in the offensive zone, rather than deferring to linemates. He was named the NHL’s First Star for the week of March 9-15 after scoring five goals and adding two assists in four games.
“There’s been more of a willingness to hang onto pucks in the offensive zone and get inside in the offensive zone,” Sullivan said. “And I think the types of goals that he’s scoring are a combination of those, where he’s inside, but also he’s getting some of his talent-driven goals that are the highlight-reel goals with his ability to score.”
To be sure, Lafreniere’s 5.2 attempts over this 13-game stretch are dwarfed by the shot attempt totals by the NHL’s most prolific offensive players. Colorado Avalanche center Nathan MacKinnon, for example, tops the League with 525 attempts and averages 7.5 per game. MacKinnon’s 48 goals lead the NHL. The rest of the top of that list of most shot attempts is a Who’s Who of superstar scorers.
Still, this stretch can’t be viewed as anything but encouraging for Lafreniere. During 2023-24, the best of his first five NHL seasons, Lafreniere averaged a career-high 4.9 shot attempts. He finished with career bests of 28 goals, 29 assists and 57 points. He also averaged 4.9 shot attempts during the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs, when he scored eight goals and had six assists for 14 points in 16 games.
Lafreniere enters Sunday’s home game against the Florida Panthers with 22 goals, 29 assists and 51 points, second on the Rangers. He’s already matched his career high in assists and is six goals and six points shy of equaling his career bests in those categories. It’s fascinating to speculate what his scoring totals would look like had he averaged better than five shots per game throughout 2025-26. Playing with a sense of assurance and verve now, besting his career highs would be a nice feather in Lafreniere’s cap.
Whether Panarin, Lafreniere’s linemate throughout 2023-24, was a hindrance or a boost to Lafreniere’s career, or both, can be debated. What appears certain is that Lafreniere is rising to fill the gap in scoring that opened up when Panarin’s time on Broadway ended.
“What it does do is it will allow other players opportunities to play a more prominent role,” Sullivan said March 16 about the impact of Panarin’s departure. “A guy like Laf, for example …
“We’re trying to take the group that we have, we are trying to build a team game, we’re trying to be hard to play against. And I really like the direction that we’ve gone.”
Lafreniere’s hot streak has Rangers facing offseason conundrum
There’s some danger in reading too much into Lafreniere’s surge because it’s occurring during pressure-free games in a second straight lost season for the Rangers. Lafreniere is often rumored to be a trade candidate who could bring back a fellow “reclamation project”-type player. Lafreniere’s seven-year, $52 million contract extension that kicked in this season makes it considerably more difficult to deal him, but this late-season hot stretch makes him potentially more palatable as a trade target this summer.
The Rangers will have to decide whether Lafreniere’s burst is the beginning of him finally making a leap in his career — or if they should leverage that production as perhaps their best chance to move him if they think what they’re seeing is fool’s gold. Watching Lafreniere grow into his expanded role as the team’s top-line right wing, meshing so encouragingly with veteran Mika Zibanejad and promising rookie Gabe Perreault on what has been a productive forward unit, will make that call a very difficult one.
Add into the equation the fact that advanced metrics paint Lafreniere as an impressive driver of play, with a career-high 54.0 expected goal share on the season, per Natural Stat Trick. The Rangers have outscored opponents 45-40 with Lafreniere on the ice at 5-on-5, and they’ve posted a stunning 223 high-danger scoring chances for to just 157 against in those situations.
Perhaps Lafreniere’s scoring is starting to catch up to his ability to generate possession and scoring opportunities for his team. Maybe it was as simple as him no longer playing second fiddle to a star linemate, and thriving with greater offensive responsibility.
Regardless of their place in the standings, the Rangers are getting a good look at what happens when the consensus No. 1 choice in the draft six years ago shoots the puck at a volume more closely resembling those of elite NHL scorers. The Blueshirts, desperate for elite young talent, can only hope that Lafreniere is ready to deliver on his promise as they look to “retool” a thin roster for next season.
“We know what kind of player he is and will continue to be,” Zibanejad said. “I think playing free is good wording for him. You could tell that an unsuccessful pass or an unsuccessful play, it doesn’t affect him. I feel like he keeps going.”
Whether Lafreniere keeps going with the Rangers or another team next season remains to be seen. At the very least, the player for whom they harbored such high hopes after selecting him atop the 2020 draft is giving them plenty to think about what he might mean for the near- and long-term future.
