How Adam Fox helped 2 former Rangers teammates get ‘overpaid’ in NHL free agency
Over the past several seasons, Adam Fox didn’t just establish himself as one of the premier defensemen in the NHL, he elevated other New York Rangers blueliners around him.
In fact, the 2020-21 Norris Trophy winner as top NHL defenseman may very well be behind the sizeable contracts former teammates Ryan Lindgren and K’Andre Miller just landed in free agency this week.
“[Fox] just got two of his former teammates massively overpaid, all because of him,” popular hockey content creator Mike Bartner stated on Tik Tok.
That’s a bit of an exaggeration, but Bartner is on to something here. Ryan Lindgren and K’Andre Miller certainly benefitted from playing with Fox. And each defenseman landed a sizeable new contract this week.
Lindgren didn’t exactly break the bank in free agency, but the unrestricted free agent did get a four-year, $18 million deal with the Seattle Kraken. Miller, an RFA who spent far less time as Fox’s partner than Lindgren but flourished when given the opportunity in that role, was traded to the Carolina Hurricanes by the Rangers and then signed a whopping eight-year, $60 million contract with his new team.
Bartner’s claim may sound exaggerated, but the numbers don’t lie. Fox has consistently produced elite results, often beefing up teammates’ stats who get to share the ice with him. And now, even as the Rangers top pair goes through a new change with the signing of free-agent Vladisalv Gavrikov, Fox’s influence continues to shape the market well beyond the walls of Madison Square Garden.
Related: K’Andre Miller ready for ‘so much fun being on the other side’ after Rangers trade with Hurricanes
K’Andre Miller’s value boosted by improved play alongside Adam Fox with Rangers
Miller spent most of his five seasons on Broadway playing a shutdown role in the top four of the Rangers defense corps. There were mixed results in his development, and last season often wasn’t pretty for Miller, whose decision making and hockey IQ were among the things that came into question as the Rangers tumbled out of the playoff picture.
But there’s no questioning that his best moments came when he was paired with Fox. Miller got plenty of early-season run on the top pair when Lindgren was injured, and even after the rugged defenseman returned to the lineup. Eventually, then-coach Peter Laviolette reunited Fox and Lindgren, and Miller returned to his second-pair role — first with Jacob Trouba, then with Will Borgen after the Rangers captain was traded.
In 361 minutes together at even strength, Miller and Fox controlled over 61 percent of goals scored and posted a 64.72 expected goals share, per Natural Stat Trick. The difference in shot quality and volume was stunning — and they held a 65.51 percent share of scoring chances, allowing just 109 against wile generating 207 chances. Those numbers dropped when Miller was not paired with Fox. His goals-for percentage dropped to 44.33 percent and his expected goals share dipped to just 41.9 percent.
There are many different ways to look at such data. Miller naturally had better underlying stats when paired with an elite partner, like Fox. Those numbers dropped significantly with Trouba, and rose a bit with Borgen. So, did the other partners drag Miller down, or was Miller unable to lift his partners up?
Carolina made a massive investment with the belief that in the right environment — and likely with the right partner — Miller can reach the potential many still see in the 25-year-old. To that end, there’s been some talk that Miller may switch to the right side and pair with Jaccob Slavin, one of the top defensemen in the NHL.
Ironically — and maybe incredibly — Miller now earns more money than Slavin, who’s being paid $6.4 million annually the next five seasons, more than a million dollars less than Miller ($7.5 million AAV). It should be noted that Miller is six years younger than Slavin.
If not on the top pairing, Miller will hold down the left side on the second pair behind Slavin, perhaps with Jalen Chatfield as his partner. Chatfeld is solid, but not elite, like Fox or Slavin. That’d be a true test to see if Miller can carry a pairing and elevate his partner.
It was a bold move by Carolina. And Miller surely can thank Fox for the payday. Now let’s see if he proves worthy of such a rich contract.
Related: Rangers GM addresses flurry of roster changes: ‘big piece of it was salary cap’
Ryan Lindgren payday fueled by Rangers tenure alongside Adam Fox
While Miller’s market value spiked late, Lindgren had been cashing in on his proximity to Fox for years. The two were paired together from 2019-25, before the Rangers traded Lindgren to the Colorado Avalanche on March 1.
In 5214:23 minutes together at even strength (regular season), Lindgren and Fox posted a 55.46 goals-for percentage and a decent 47.89 percent expected goals share. When Lindgren was away from Fox, though, things were not nearly as pretty — his xGF fell to just 45.0 percent and his expected goals percentage dropped to 43.6 percent.
Meanwhile , Fox without Lindgren was dominant, with a 63.33 goals-for percentage and a 62.9 percent share of expected goals. It wasn’t just a case of Lindgren benefitting from Fox’s presence — it was Fox carrying the pair entirely.
It became even more clear this past season, when Lindgren seemed off after returning from an early-season injury. The 27-year-old is a warrior and remained true to his heart-and-soul play-style. But over time his body appears to be wearing down and more and more Fox carried the load on the top pairing.
Even without Fox as his partner in Colorado, the Avalanche wanted to re-sign Lindgren this offseason. Instead, he jumped to the Kraken for $4.5 million a year, with questions about how that contract will age.
Like Miller, Lindgren surely should’ve sent Fox a “Thank You” text on July 1.
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